Bet on what happens next. Get paid when you’re right.

Every market opens at 50 / 50 with nothing in it. The percentage is a price: YES at 60% means a YES share costs $0.60. When you bet, your money buys shares at that price, and the buying pushes the price up — the same way a coin’s price moves on a launch curve when people buy it. Selling pushes it back down.

That is the entire mechanism. There is no bookmaker setting a line and no order book to fill, and nobody has to put money in first: the price moves only with what people buy and sell, in real time. Buy early on the side that turns out right and you hold more shares per dollar than the people who came after you.

You can sell at any moment while trading is open — at the price of that moment, with whatever profit or loss the price has made since you bought. Your position shows it live: shares, average price paid, price now, what a sale would fetch.

1. 1

   Someone asks a question

   Anyone with a wallet can open a market. They write the question, the exact rule that settles it, and how long trading stays open — from ten minutes to a year. It costs 0.05 SOL, paid once. Vague rules are the number one cause of disputes, so the good ones name a source, a threshold and a cut-off.

2. 2

   People bet

   Deposit USDC on YES or NO. There is no minimum beyond one dollar and no maximum. The creator is the one person who cannot bet — their wallet is blocked by the program itself, because they are the one who will answer. Changed your mind? A bet can be taken back while trading is open, except in the last hour (the last tenth of a short market): what you sell for comes back less 1.25% — and the entry fee already paid stays. The only way to make money here is to be right when it settles.

3. 3

   Trading closes

   At the time the creator set, the market stops taking bets. From here the money cannot move until there is an answer.

4. 4

   The answer

   The creator publishes what happened, with a link to the source. Anyone who disagrees has two hours to challenge it — see who decides below. If nobody does, that is the answer.

5. 5

   Everyone is paid

   Winners split the money in the market by shares, with nothing taken off at settlement. The platform’s keeper pays every position within a minute of settlement, so normally there is nothing to click; the Claim button is there in case it is ever late. Losers get nothing — but closing their position hands back the small deposit the chain charged to store it, and the keeper does that too.

One formula, no exceptions:

payout  =  money in the market  ×  (your winning shares ÷ all winning shares)

When the market settles, every dollar in it goes to the winning side, split by shares. Nothing is promised per share: what the market holds is what is paid, and the market page shows that figure live — “if YES wins → $X” — before you buy. Collecting is free: what the formula gives is what reaches your wallet.

Be honest with yourself about one thing: because the price moves, buying late on a side that has already run up can mean holding fewer shares than your money would have bought earlier — and if the winners are many, each share pays less. The live “if it wins” figure is there so nobody is surprised.

Say $1,000 went in on YES and $500 on NO, and YES happens. The $1,500 in the market is split among the YES shares. The person whose $100 bought a tenth of them gets $150, in full. Everyone on YES does the same sum with their own shares. Everyone on NO gets nothing.

If a market is voided, or nobody holds the winning side, there is nothing to decide: the money in the market goes back to its holders in proportion to what they paid, and no fee is taken on it.

Every bet is charged 1.25% as the deposit lands, split down the middle between the creator and the platform. Selling costs 1.25% of what comes out — the same as buying (and the entry fee stays too). Collecting a win is free. Nothing for holding, nothing for voting, and nothing on a creator collecting their share or a holder collecting theirs.

• 0.625% to the creator

  Whoever opened the market earns it on every bet placed there, win or lose. 0.5% is theirs to withdraw at any time; the last 0.125% is held until the market settles — back to the creator if nobody disputed their verdict, or to the holders who voted correctly if somebody did. A clear question earns the full amount; a contested one pays its jury.

• 0.625% to PREDICT

  The platform’s share, and it is split again.

• — half is buy-back and burn

  Half of everything the platform earns is used to buy PREDICT on the open market and destroy it, permanently. More trading means fewer tokens in existence. This is the only way tokens ever leave circulation.

• — half runs the platform

  Servers, the review team, and building the next thing.

Most questions are not controversial. Did the price close above the line, did the team win, did the bill pass. So the cheap path is the normal one, and every step after it only happens because somebody paid to say the answer was wrong.

1. 1

   The creator answers — 2 hours

   When trading closes, the person who opened the market publishes the outcome and the source that settles it. If they say nothing for two hours, anyone can hand the question straight to the holders, at no cost.

2. 2

   The auditor reads it — minutes

   Before anyone has to spend anything, the platform’s own AI reads the evidence the creator gave against the criteria the creator wrote when they opened the market. If it does not agree — the link says something else, the source is from before the question was settled, the threshold is not met — the verdict is flagged and goes straight to the holders. No bond, no challenger, nobody out of pocket. Its reading is shown next to every verdict either way, with how sure it is, so voters see what it saw. The auditor never decides a market; it only decides whether the creator gets the cheap path.

3. 3

   Anyone can challenge — 2 hours

   Anybody with money on the market can say the verdict is wrong, for a bond of 1 SOL. Nobody challenges, and the verdict stands. The bond is deliberately small: a lie should be cheap to punish, and the bond comes back to a challenger who was right.

4. 4

   PREDICT holders vote — 2 hours

   A challenge puts the question to everyone who has staked PREDICT. You vote with your whole stake, automatically — nothing is locked and it keeps earning — multiplied by your track record. The holders who called it correctly split two things: the market’s jury share of the fees (the 0.125%), and the challenger’s SOL if the challenger was wrong. A challenger who was right gets their SOL back. If too little stake turns up to vote, or the vote ties, the question goes to the review team instead.

5. 5

   Review — 24 hours

   The holders’ answer can be challenged in turn, for another SOL that is never refunded. That puts the market in front of our review team, who rule with a written rationale. If they have not ruled within a day, anyone can void the market and every bettor is refunded in full. We cannot sit on your money.

Every wallet has a score. It moves each time a vote settles, and it multiplies the weight of every vote that wallet casts afterwards — from half weight at the floor to triple at the ceiling. Everyone starts at 1×. Your voting power is simply your stake times that number, the same on every dispute you take part in.

• +10Voted with the final outcome
• −25Voted against it
• +25Challenged a verdict and were right
• −25Challenged and were wrong
• +5Opened a market nobody challenged
• −50Opened a market and were overturned

Losing trust is faster than earning it, deliberately. And a creator with a long record and no market ever overturned gets a mark next to their name — the sign that their verdicts have held up, every time.

The score sits next to every market its creator opens — on the card, on the market page, on their profile — so you know who is going to call it before you bet on it. Follow a creator you rate and their next prediction lands in your bell the moment it opens.

Every candle is a market. Pick a coin and a length — five minutes, fifteen, thirty, an hour — and bet whether the price at the close will be above the price at the open. Ten coins to start — more as we add them — and a fresh candle every time the clock ticks over, all day.

1. 1

   The candle opens on the clock

   A 5m round opens at :00, :05, :10 and so on; the oracle records the price at that exact moment. Bets are open from the moment the round exists until the candle is half over — the last half is locked, because a pool that takes money in the final second is a pool where the final second is free. You can take a bet back until the last 2% of the betting window (the last three seconds of a 5m candle’s); after that it is locked in. Taking a bet back returns what the shares fetch at that moment, less 1.25% — the entry fee stays. Profit exists only once the candle closes and the round is settled, and it is paid in full.

2. 2

   The candle closes, the oracle speaks

   At the close the oracle records the price again. Above the open is UP; at or below the open is DOWN. Nobody proposes, nobody votes, nobody can be challenged — there is no opinion in it.

3. 3

   Winners split the money, same as everywhere else

   The money in the round is shared among the winning shares in proportion. The 1.25% fee comes off each bet as it lands and goes to the platform: there is no creator on a candle. Winners are paid by the keeper as soon as the round settles. If the oracle fails to post a price within two minutes of a boundary, the round is voided and every bet comes back.

The open and close are the one-minute candle opens from Bybit (Binance and Coinbase as fallbacks), posted by the platform’s keeper and recorded in the round on chain, so anyone can check them against the exchange. The same numbers drive the chart you watch. Moving them to a signed on-chain oracle (Pyth or Chainlink Data Streams — reports the program can verify itself) is the planned upgrade, and each asset’s page says which source is live.

PREDICT is not something you bet with — bets are in USDC. It is the token you stake to become one of the people who settle disputes.

There is no mechanism that creates new tokens. The supply that exists on day one is the most there will ever be, and every dollar traded on the platform makes it a little smaller. Staking interest is paid from a pool set aside out of that supply — when the pool is empty, it stops, rather than printing more.

• Your money is in a vault only the program can open.

  Each market has its own account on Solana that holds every bet. Money leaves it only by the program’s own rules: a winner collecting, a refund, and the fee that was carved off each bet as it landed — the creator’s part, the platform’s part, the jury’s part. There is no other way out. We could not take the pools if we wanted to.

• Markets cannot touch each other.

  One vault per market, physically separate. A problem in one market cannot reach the money in another, not because of accounting but because they are different accounts.

• The creator cannot bet on their own question.

  The person who answers has no stake in the answer. The program refuses their wallet outright.

• Nobody can stall a market.

  Every step of resolution can be triggered by anyone once its time has come. A market never waits on a specific person, so no one person can freeze it.

• If we go silent, the market voids itself.

  The review team has one day. After that, anyone can void the market and every bettor is refunded. Our involvement is a deadline, not a lock.

• Open source, reviewed, tested.

  The program is open source and has been through a line-by-line security review (the findings and fixes are published in the repository), and every rule on this page is exercised by tests against a live chain. Bet what you can afford to lose, read the code if you can, and if you find a hole, tell us — we pay for real findings.

• Everything is public.

  The program, every market, every bet and every verdict is on Solana, readable by anyone with the address. What you see on this site is what the chain says, read directly — there is no database in between that could disagree.

• No obscene or vulgar language, in the market or in the discussion.
• No sexual, pornographic or violent imagery. Every uploaded image is checked before it is accepted.
• No markets on the death, injury or attack of any person.
• No markets targeting private individuals, or requiring private data to settle.
• Resolution criteria must be verifiable from a public source that anyone can check.
• Moderators can void a market at any time before settlement; a void refunds every bettor in full.

A market that breaks these is voided by the review team. Voiding refunds every bettor in full, so nobody loses money to somebody else’s bad question. The full Content Policy, Terms of Service and Privacy Policy are separate pages.

Do I need an account?

No. Your wallet is your account. Connect it and you are in; disconnect and you are out. We never see a password because there is none.

What do I bet with?

USDC on Solana. Your winnings come back as USDC to the same wallet. You can also pay in SOL: it is swapped into USDC inside the same transaction, so you sign once.

Why does my wallet ask me to sign when I comment or like?

Comments, hearts, follows and profile pictures live off chain — storing a comment on Solana would cost more than most bets. A signature proves the wallet is yours; you sign once and the site remembers you for a day. Money never uses that shortcut: a bet is always a transaction you approve.

Can I bet on both sides?

Yes. Some people do it to lock in a position when the price moves. Each side is held separately and pays out separately.

What if the creator lies about the outcome?

Anyone with money on the market can challenge for a 1 SOL bond (plus a 0.05 SOL fee), and PREDICT holders decide. A creator who is overturned takes the biggest reputation hit in the system and has to watch their verdict rejected in public. Lying is easy to catch and expensive to be caught at — which is why it does not pay.

What if nobody bets on the winning side?

Then there is nobody to pay and nothing to share. Every bettor gets their stake back.

Why is there a fee to open a market?

Without one the feed would fill with junk in a day. 0.05 SOL is enough to make spam cost something and small enough that one good question is not a decision.

Where do I see the fees actually being burned?

On chain, like everything else. Buy-backs and burns are transactions on Solana, and we publish the addresses. You do not have to trust the number on this page — you can count.