Terms of Service

The Site is an interface for reading from and sending transactions to the PREDICT program, a set of open-source smart contracts deployed on the Solana blockchain (the “Protocol”). The Protocol lets anyone open a yes-or-no market, deposit USDC on an outcome, and take part in resolving it.

We are not a counterparty. We do not take the other side of any bet, set odds, or hold your funds. Deposits are held by the Protocol in an account controlled by program code, and paid out by that code. We cannot reach into a market’s vault, reverse a bet, or change a payout.

The Site is not the only way to use the Protocol. The Protocol is public and can be used from any software. These terms cover your use of the Site; they do not, and cannot, govern the Protocol itself.

To use the Site you must:

• be at least 18 years old, or older if the law where you live requires it;
• be legally able to enter into a binding agreement;
• not be a person or entity subject to sanctions, or acting on behalf of one;
• not be located in, or accessing the Site from, a Restricted Jurisdiction.

Restricted Jurisdictions are:

• United States of America and its territories
• United Kingdom
• Any country or region subject to comprehensive sanctions by the United Nations, the European Union, the United Kingdom or the United States
• Any jurisdiction where prediction markets, betting or the use of digital assets is unlawful

We may add to this list at any time. It is your responsibility to know whether using a prediction market is lawful where you are. Using a VPN or any other means to hide your location in order to use the Site is a breach of these terms.

There are no accounts. You use the Site with a cryptocurrency wallet that you control. You are solely responsible for that wallet, its keys, its recovery phrase and every transaction signed with it. We never have access to your keys and can never recover them for you.

A transaction signed by your wallet is treated as yours. If somebody else has your keys, their transactions are yours too.

Every market runs on a price curve: your deposit buys shares in one outcome at the price of that moment, and the price moves with every purchase and sale. At settlement the money in the market is divided among the shares of the winning outcome in proportion; nothing is promised per share, and a share bought after a price has risen may pay less than it cost even when it wins. The Site shows the payout a position would receive if it won, at the market as it stands, before you confirm.

While trading is open you may sell shares back to the curve at the price of that moment, subject to the fee in clause 6 and to the closing period during which sales are refused. Once a transaction is confirmed it cannot be reversed by you or by us; a sale is a new transaction, not a reversal.

The person who opens a market writes its resolution criteria. The Protocol settles the market on those criteria as written, through the process described in clause 5. Read the criteria before you deposit. If they are vague, do not bet.

A market may be voided — by the review committee, or by anyone if the committee does not rule in time. A voided market refunds every deposit in full, less the bet fee already paid.

Outcomes are decided by the Protocol’s resolution process, not by us:

• The market's creator publishes an outcome and evidence within the proposal window.
• Anyone with a position may challenge it by posting a bond. An automated auditor operated by us may also send it to a vote, without a bond, if the evidence does not support the outcome. If nobody does either, the creator's outcome stands.
• A challenged outcome is put to a vote of PREDICT token stakers. Vote weight is the voter's stake adjusted by their reputation.
• The vote's result may be challenged once more by posting a second bond, which is never returned. The market then goes to the review committee.
• If the committee does not rule within its window, anyone may void the market.

Bonds posted by a challenger who turns out to be wrong are forfeited. Bonds posted by a challenger who turns out to be right are returned. Full details, including every window and amount, are on the How it works page and in the Protocol’s code, which governs if the two ever differ.

Markets we open ourselves are marked with a blue verified mark and are resolved by us as the creator. Those resolutions may be challenged in the same way as any other.

You accept that a resolution reached through this process is final, even if you disagree with it, and that we have no power to alter it.

The Protocol charges:

• A fee on every bet, taken when the bet is placed and split between the platform treasury, the creator of the market, and a share reserved for the stakers who resolve a dispute — returned to the creator if the market is never disputed. The current rate is shown on the Site before you confirm.
• A fee on the amount of a bet taken back while trading is open.
• A fixed fee to open a market, paid to the treasury and not refunded.
• A fixed fee to challenge a resolution, paid to the treasury and not refunded, on top of the bond described in clause 5.
• Bonds to challenge a resolution, which are returned or forfeited as described in clause 5.

Solana network fees, and the cost of any token swap you choose to make (for example paying in SOL, which is swapped to USDC through a third-party aggregator at a rate and slippage shown to you before you sign), are separate and paid by you.

Fee rates are set in the Protocol’s configuration and may change. A change applies to bets placed after it, never to bets already placed.

PREDICT is a utility token used to take part in resolving markets and to earn a share of the rewards for doing so. It is not a share, a security, a deposit, an e-money instrument or a claim against us, and it gives no right to any revenue, asset or decision of ours. We make no promise about its price, liquidity or future existence.

You agree not to:

• open a market or post content that breaks the Content Policy;
• open a market in order to profit from an event you intend to cause, or that would reward anyone for causing harm;
• manipulate a resolution — including by colluding, by using multiple wallets to evade the rule that a creator cannot bet on their own market, or by voting on a market's outcome in bad faith;
• interfere with the Site, its infrastructure or other users, or use it to launder money or evade sanctions;
• scrape, mirror or reproduce the Site other than as the Protocol's open-source licence allows.

We may hide content, refuse to display a market on the Site, or block an address from the Site for a breach. Because the Protocol is permissionless, blocking an address from the Site does not remove its positions on chain, and voiding a market only ever refunds — it never confiscates.

You own what you write and upload. By posting it you grant us a worldwide, royalty-free licence to display, store and distribute it as part of operating the Site. You are responsible for having the right to post it. Market questions and resolution criteria are recorded on the blockchain permanently and cannot be edited or deleted by anyone; think before you write them.

• Total loss. A losing bet pays nothing.
• Smart-contract risk. The Protocol may contain bugs. Code deployed to a blockchain can behave in ways nobody intended, and funds affected by a bug may be unrecoverable.
• Resolution risk. A market may be settled in a way you believe is wrong. The process in clause 5 is the only remedy.
• Evidence risk. Sources cited in resolution criteria may change, disappear or be disputed.
• Network risk. Solana may halt, slow down or reject transactions. Wallet software and RPC providers may fail.
• Price risk. USDC, SOL and PREDICT can lose value, and a swap into USDC executes at market rate.
• Regulatory risk. Laws about prediction markets and digital assets change, and may make the Site unavailable where you are.

The Site is provided “as is” and “as available” with no warranty of any kind, express or implied, including of accuracy, availability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. Odds, prices, balances and histories on the Site are read from the blockchain and third-party services and may be delayed or wrong. Nothing on the Site is advice of any kind, and no market’s existence on the Site is an endorsement of it.

To the fullest extent the law allows, we and our officers, contributors and suppliers are not liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential or punitive loss, nor for any loss of funds, profits, data or goodwill, arising from your use of the Site or the Protocol — including loss caused by a smart-contract bug, a resolution you disagree with, a network failure, a third-party service, or unauthorised use of your wallet.

Where liability cannot be excluded, our total liability to you for all claims together is limited to the greater of the fees you paid to the treasury through the Site in the twelve months before the claim, or one hundred US dollars.

Nothing in these terms limits liability that cannot lawfully be limited.

You will indemnify us against any claim, loss or cost (including reasonable legal fees) arising from your breach of these terms, your content, or your use of the Site in breach of any law.

The Site relies on services we do not control: wallet software, WalletConnect, Solana RPC providers, the token-swap aggregator, and hosting and storage providers. Their own terms apply to your use of them, and we are not responsible for their availability or conduct.

We may change these terms by publishing a new version on the Site with a new effective date. Continuing to use the Site after that date is acceptance of the new terms. We may suspend or discontinue the Site, or any part of it, at any time. Because the Protocol runs on a public blockchain, positions already open continue to exist and settle under the Protocol’s rules whether or not the Site is available.

If any part of these terms is found unenforceable, the rest still applies. Nothing in these terms takes away rights that the law of the place where you live grants you and does not let you waive. These terms, the Privacy Policy and the Content Policy are the whole agreement between you and us about the Site. You may not transfer your rights under them; we may transfer ours to whoever runs the Site after us. Failing to enforce a term is not a waiver of it.